Dear friend

I think that three weeks into this special military operation nosotros can accept a few moments to pause and remember about where we are and where nosotros go from hither.

My first ascertainment is this: there are, roughly, two main groups of people out there, those who "get it" and those who don't.  In practical terms, this is what this means for me: when I write I am either "preaching to the choir" or I am trying to achieve folks who are "unreachable" (being polite here).

For the past three weeks, I have tried to debunk the US PSYOP narrative, aslope folks similar Andrei Martyanov at Reminiscences of the Future and Bernhard at Moon of Alabama.  My wellness does non let me to sustain such a crazy tempo and I demand to enter something of a "temporary rest mode" if I want to avoid existence forced into rest by my trunk.

Nonetheless I notwithstanding get a daily deluge of questions from those who did not "go information technology" and, frankly, I am exhausted trying to debunk the aforementioned stuff over and over and over over again.

Then, one last time:

In purely military terms, the picture we see now is elementary: the Ukie military machine as a strategic instrument basically died in the first 24 hours.  Then the Russians used a small strength to bypass and block master cities.  With some very notable exceptions (Mariupol) they did not endeavor to enter them.  Why?  For 3 crucial reasons:

  1. they did not have the manpower needed (in Mariupol the force correlation is well-nigh 1:1 when it should really be three-v:1 in favor of the aggressor)
  2. they wanted to impale as few Ukrainians as possible and
  3. they did non want to flatten cities only to take to pay for their reconstruction.

And then where are the rest of the Russian forces and what are they doing?

They are mostly in their permanent deployment bases and they are ready for a war confronting the U.s.a.+NATO.

And if you are the type of believes that "the Russians are running out of manpower" ask yourself why the Black Sea Fleet did non utilize its elite Naval Infantry, amphibious landing capability or its firepower (I remind you that all the huge damage done to the NATO base in western Ukraine was just a single salvo from one single small-scale vessel (what the Russian phone call a "small missile ship"), probably with one (state or air based) Iskander to add some specific "punch" where needed.  If the Russian were running out of manpower, would she not use the Blackness Sea Fleet to the max?  Instead, she is keeping information technology most Odessa, ready to strike if/when needed, not but at the Ukraine, only at NATO besides (ditto for the group of Russian ships in the eastern Mediterranean).

This is why Putin refers to this operation as a "special military performance" and not as a "war" or a "combined arms functioning".

Again, you lot either "go it" or you don't.  Information technology's that simple, actually.

So here is roughly were nosotros are today (yesterday's Readovka map):

So we are probable to end upwards with something looking like this:

And I don't see the point of reporting how we will become from the superlative map to the projection above blow by blow, town by boondocks.

The real question that comes to my mind looking at the projection above is non "how practice nosotros get in that location?" but "where practice we get from there once nosotros arrive?".  Correct now this decision fourth dimension is however probably a couple of weeks into the hereafter.

Whatever may be the instance, I have decided to stop posting updates every day (sometimes several times a day) and, instead, alternate analyses days and open thread days .

So from now on, expect analyses only every 2nd 24-hour interval (unless big events happen).

Next, I don't run across any other way to stop the United states of america+UK+PL to intervene other than by ways of a Iskander/Kalibr strike not "just" upon any target in the Ukraine, but also strikes on any NATO facility is central to the current war preparations by NATO, including locations in Poland , Romania or anywhere else in Europe.

I hope that I am incorrect and that the Usa+UK+PL are not as terminally blinded by their hatred of Russia equally to adventure an actual total scale state of war in Europe.

But I have to admit that this hope is small and getting smaller past the day.

It is therefore quite possible, perhaps fifty-fifty likely, that in the not too afar future nosotros will see US and Russian armed forces personnel meeting in combat.  If that happens, not only volition the risks of a fullscale nuclear war go sharply upwardly, but information technology would place me personally in an impossible situation: I would be a guest of the U.s.a. ("Dark-green Card" – I only have a Swiss Passport) while my country of ethnic origin would exist at war with the USA.

I have therefore taken the post-obit decision: if in that location is a war in Europe, I will go along to cover it until one) Russian and US soldiers meet in battle and/or 2) a nuclear strike happens anywhere.  If we reach either of these points, then this will non only bear witness that the Saker web log failed in its main mission (avoid war) only it will also identify me personally in an impossible situation.

If either of the two events happen, I will then "freeze" the blog until the war stops.

I don't similar to have to take the two decisions above, in fact I very much regret them both, just things are chop-chop getting out of manus and I demand to prepare, both the blog and my personal life.

Question: call up the Israeli war against Hezbollah in 2006?

Hezbollah won this war by a humongous margin, and the United states of america+State of israel had to surrender to Hezbollah terms.  Not only that, but this war made Hezbollah much, much stronger than it was before.  However it began by a miscalculation which Hassan Nasrallah himself admitted: Hezbollah never expected to Israelis to go and then far overboard and basically hammer Lebanon with everything they had for over a month.

I see a parallel hither.

No, I do non remember that the Russian armed forces operation has run into any major issues, past and large what happened in these three weeks must be pretty much what the Russian expected.

In economical terms, there is this big argue now about the Russian gold and foreign currency reserves which I am not capable of commenting upon since I am not an economist.  I will allow much smarter people than I bargain with that.

I besides think that the Russians knew in advance what kind of sanctions the West would innovate sooner or later, but I think that the Kremlin was taken past surprise at the speed and scope of the sanctions.  How much of a trouble is that?  Well, I by and large favor western sanctions against Russia considering they strength Russia to built a sovereign economic system and because they de-couple Russia from the institutions controlled by the Empire of Lies.

Here, over again, time will tell and much smarter people then I can offer their insights into this.

However, I think that most people in Russia are stunned by what is a full-scale "hate war" on Russian federation which nosotros tin can telephone call the "Cancel Russia state of war".  In essence, the West did throw everything information technology had at Russia short of a overt military aggression and knowing the geniuses in power in the US+United kingdom+PL I would not even put it past them to try to fight Russian federation directly.

Then what began as a special military operation to denazify and disarm Banderastan in a preemptive war turned into a global "Abolish Russian federation" world war.

How could I arraign folks in Russia for non being able to imagine the utter suicidal depravity of the western ruling classes when I, who was born in the heart of Europe and lived all my life in the Westward could non imagine these ruling classes to be and so absolutely out of touch with reality?

Once more, to be clear, Russians were not "naive" to "trust" the Westward virtually annihilation, simply they indeed causeless that the ruling class of the USA would not decide to blow up the planet economically and even possibly militarily because it would injure the interests of the Us ruling class.  So if anybody is "dumbshit stupid" it is inappreciably the Russians, but rather the folks who dominion over the The states (and, therefore, over the EU too).

There is also this Russian expression: "you should count your chicks in the Autumn".  Let's see past year'south end who was really dumbshit stupid and who volition take prevailed.

Now I think that it is time for all of us, myself included, to allow go of the thought "no, they tin't perchance by THAT delusional" and assume that aye, they are really THAT delusional.

I also see another parallel: remember how the USA forced Nihon into a state of war then wrapped itself in the mantle of an innocent victim and declared "this twenty-four hour period shall alive in infamy"?

That is exactly what the USA only pulled off in Europe. And the consequences might be just as immense.

But at that place is a big deviation here: Japan could not meaningfully strike at the continental USA.  Russia very much can, with both nuclear and conventional weapons.

Hither I volition only echo the quote by Putin which I mentioned the twenty-four hours before the Russian special military machine operation: " if a fight is inevitable yous should strike first ".  In plain English this means that if the Russian come to the conclusion that the U.s. is engaged in a "Desert Shield" type of operation (claim to exist just defensive while preparing for months for a fullscale footing invasion) then you can exist sure that Russia will strike Eu airports, seaports or any other facility used to prepare an attack on Russian federation.

In fact, if the US/NATO do decide to attack Russia, this volition exist the final, nuclear, end for the western civilization as such.  Afterwards 1000 years of genocidal imperialism, one could be forgiven for thinking that this could be a plumbing fixtures, just, end" in the "chicken coming home to roost" kind of karmic justice.

Now it is in the easily of the The states ruling elites.

Bluntly, there is very picayune Andrei, Bernhard of myself tin practise nearly that.  I certain have said all I have to say on this topic and, again, some see it, others don't – and in that location is nothing more I can do to affect this ratio.

The future of our planet now depends on whether the traditional western hatred for all things Russian is bigger or smaller than the cocky-preservation instincts of US ruling class (the Eurolemmings are hopeless).

Just time will tell.  All we tin do now is pray and place our trust and lives into God'due south hands.

Okay, these are the things I wanted to communicate to you lot all, my friends and readers.  I still hope for the best, but I have to prepare for the worst, and I want to be fully candid with all of you.

Kind regards

Andrei

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